Blog 3: Re-election Odds for Senator McCain

Arizona is red, has been red, and will be red.

Senator Barry Goldwater

Senator McCain's predecessor, Barry Goldwater, redefined conservatism from Arizona.  So while it’s no doubt a conservative will be elected (for the foreseeable future), Senator McCain can’t fall asleep on the sidelines.

In his last Senate election (2010), Senator McCain garnered nearly twice as many votes as his Democratic challenger in the general election.  However, Senator McCain faced a “bitterly fought Republican primary” for his party’s nomination in 2010.

The Maverick’s toughest competition will not be a Democrat in 2016, but presumably a further-right conservative, according to the The Hill’s Senior Reporter Alexander Bolton and Arizona’s top newspaper The Arizona Republic.

Senator John McCain after winning
his 2010 re-election

With that said, Senator McCain is safe.  He has the 22^nd-most money of any sitting Senator in his war chest, with just over $2 million.  Also, let’s not forget Senator McCain raised and spent over $21 million on his 2010 Senate race.

Arizona supported Mitt Romney with 54.2% of the vote in the 2012 election, as part of a long-running streak of Republican presidential candidate support.  The state only voted for one Democrat, President Clinton's 1996 re-election, since 1948.

President Clinton after winning his
1996 re-election campaign.

Senator McCain should be somewhat concerned about his age, as he will be 80 years old on Election Night 2016.  Research studies at Stanford have suggested that people view old age as an "obstacle" (in the case of Bob Dole's 1996 presidential election.)

The Senator hinted at retirement, but all indications point to his re-election in 2016.

Skinny: Senator John McCain will run in 2016 and keep his Senate seat.